Winning, Losing, & #NeverTrump
November 11, 2016 at 10:14 PM
Before the election, projection models showed that a popular vote shift of 2 points in either direction moved the electoral outcome drastically. Nate Silver at 538 said that if Clinton won popular vote by 4 points, she would win the electoral college easily. He said if Clinton won by about 2 points the electoral college became a toss up.
Think about that. Out of 100 voters, it only takes one or two to change their minds to drastically alter the outcome.
This is one reason we should be careful in the election aftermath. The temptation is to look back and think the winning campaign was brilliant and the losing campaign incompetent. Even in the last two days I've heard people talk about how Clinton was such a terrible candidate and Trump called the most talented politician ever. If one or two people in 100 had voted the other way, people would be talking about what a disaster Trump & his campaign were and how brilliantly Clinton brushed off scandals and prevailed.
Where it hits home to me is when people now are acting like Trump's win is somehow discrediting to those who took the #NeverTrump stand. Most of us thought Trump would lose and lose badly. That prediction was wrong. Very wrong. But that wasn't the basis of #NeverTrump. I didn't refuse to vote for him because I thought he was going to lose - I didn't vote for him because I thought he was unfit for office. His win doesn't change any of that. If you had told me back in February that a Trump was going to win, it wouldn't have changed my position. I would have said, "If he's going to, he's going to do it without me." And that's exactly what he did.
So if you ask me if I feel stupid or like I've been rebuked by the election results, my answer is no. My reasoning still stands. The 1-3% shift that changes the election result — that's really not a consideration in my view.
And now even though I didn't consider him fit (nor Clinton, we were choosing from two unfit candidates, neither of whom I could support) to be president, now that he's been elected my hope is that he will rise above the things that caused me to consider him unfit and will lead the country well. I have serious concerns. I'll speak up when I see problems. But for now I'm going to hope for the best.
Think about that. Out of 100 voters, it only takes one or two to change their minds to drastically alter the outcome.
This is one reason we should be careful in the election aftermath. The temptation is to look back and think the winning campaign was brilliant and the losing campaign incompetent. Even in the last two days I've heard people talk about how Clinton was such a terrible candidate and Trump called the most talented politician ever. If one or two people in 100 had voted the other way, people would be talking about what a disaster Trump & his campaign were and how brilliantly Clinton brushed off scandals and prevailed.
Where it hits home to me is when people now are acting like Trump's win is somehow discrediting to those who took the #NeverTrump stand. Most of us thought Trump would lose and lose badly. That prediction was wrong. Very wrong. But that wasn't the basis of #NeverTrump. I didn't refuse to vote for him because I thought he was going to lose - I didn't vote for him because I thought he was unfit for office. His win doesn't change any of that. If you had told me back in February that a Trump was going to win, it wouldn't have changed my position. I would have said, "If he's going to, he's going to do it without me." And that's exactly what he did.
So if you ask me if I feel stupid or like I've been rebuked by the election results, my answer is no. My reasoning still stands. The 1-3% shift that changes the election result — that's really not a consideration in my view.
And now even though I didn't consider him fit (nor Clinton, we were choosing from two unfit candidates, neither of whom I could support) to be president, now that he's been elected my hope is that he will rise above the things that caused me to consider him unfit and will lead the country well. I have serious concerns. I'll speak up when I see problems. But for now I'm going to hope for the best.
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